Russia and the international economy
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Preferences in External Economic Activities. In October, 1996 the Government abolished previously applicable preferential taxation of alcoholic beverages imported from abroad by certain legal entities which were exempt from customs duties (for instance, the National Fund of Sports and the All-Russian Society of Invalids). Since December, pursuant to the Presidential Decree "On Customs Preferences" of November 30, 1995, it is inadmissible for Federal agencies to adopt decisions which would provide prolongation of preferences in terms of customs duty exempts and receipts of additional compensations.
In August, 1996 the control mechanism over incoming export proceeds denominated in foreign exchange was adjusted. All proceeds in foreign currencies shall be entered into accounts with authorized banks--that became a requirement of the customs regime. Customs service now enjoys the right to control all capital flows and apply relevant sanctions if necessary.
In September, 1996 the control over exports and imports of military-purposed products, works and services, subject to licensing, was tightened.
In December the set of instruments of the state control mechanism over imports was supplemented. The system of foreign exchange control over imports introduced on January 1, 1996, is basing on the same principles as the export control existing since 1994 and envisages the same chain of relations: an importer--an authorized bank--customs. The key document fundamental for the whole control system is a registration certificate for import transactions.
3. Foreign Trade Pattern
In 1995 Russian foreign trade was influenced by differently directed factors. A favorable state of the world market and the governmental policy of stimulating exports via regular lowering of export duties provided for a further increase in volumes of trade with countries outside the former Soviet Union and a stable active balance of the foreign trade.
Estimating Russian foreign trade the following adverse factors shall be taken into account: a decline in production, small amounts of investment, rather high inflation rates, insufficient level of state assistance for development of the country's export potential, poor competitiveness of many Russian-made manufactured products, especially of machines and equipment, lack of positive shifts in development of Russia's external relations with countries of the former CMEA, huge external debt, discriminatory barriers banning a number of Russian-made products from external markets. In connection with accession of Finland, Sweden and Austria to the EU Russia automatically became subject to anti-dumping and quantitative restrictions concerning trade with these countries in steel, textiles, mineral fertilizers, uranium.
Introduction of the "ruble corridor (fluctuation band)" alongside with a relatively high internal price dynamics caused deterioration of export transactions' effectiveness. However, due to liberalization of energy resources exports, the export sector reacted to the introduction of the "corridor" slower and not so sharply as critics of a fixed exchange rate had believed. At the same time, stabilization of ruble exchange rate created a sufficiently favorable transaction climate for importers allowing them to compensate a part of the loss inflicted by an increase in import tariffs.
Goskomstat reports that the Russian foreign trade turnover, unorganized trade including, made $ 135.7 billion in 1995, or by 16 percent more in comparison with 1994 figures. Exports were at $ 77.8 billion (a 18 percent increase) and imports at $ 57.9 billion (by 15 percent more).
The results of external economic activities in 1992 through 1995 are indicative of the fact that Russia re-oriented its trade towards industrialized countries and that the share of countries outside the former Soviet Union in the total foreign trade turnover has grown. In 1995 countries outside the former USSR accounted for 78 percent of it. In 1992 through 1995 exports to these countries increased at a record rate in the last 20 years with exports showing a 25 percent growth ($ 64.3 billion) and imports (together with unorganized trade) increasing by 12 percent ($ 41.6 billion).
In 1995 growth rates slowed down considerably. Thus, while in the first quarter exports grew by 45 percent as compared with the same period in the last year, in the second quarter it made only 29 percent and showed a modest 15 percent increase in the third quarter. Undoubtedly, export growth rates were affected by the "currency corridor (fluctuation band)" introduced in the second half of the year.
As before, the bulk of Russian exports consists of raw materials. Fuel and energy resources account for the biggest share (41 percent) of exports, while the Fuel-and-Energy Complex production (oil, natural gas, oil products) becomes more and more oriented towards external markets.
In 1995 a decline in export growth rates in real terms was observed as natural gas exports increased by 11 percent (14 percent in 1994), oil products grew by 8 percent (11 percent), oil--by only 1 percent (11 percent).
Growth of exports as calculated in value terms was primarily caused by a favorable situation on the world market. Average contract oil prices of exports in the countries outside the former Soviet Union increased by about 7 percent as compared with 1994 figures, natural gas exports grew by 10 percent while oil products showed a 6.6 percent increase.
Metal exports accounted for a 20 percent share in the Russian exports. Nickel and ferrous metals exports grew most rapidly at 37 and 26 percent accordingly. Average export prices of key metals surged, thus, price of nickel increased by 33.1 percent, of aluminum--by 36.9 percent, of copper--by 24.2 percent, of ferrous alloys--by 24.7 percent, of pig iron--by 14.6 percent. The pattern of metal exports has somewhat changed. Customs statistics reveal a growing number of contracts on export of finished metal articles, however, their share in the total export volumes is still insignificant. These articles are being made according to designs of foreign companies (mostly in aircraft and engineering industries) under a binding condition that they shall be manufactured in accordance with the West European standards and certified by a foreign firm. It is too early to suggest the end of an age of raw exports conducted in their most primitive form, however, the Russian metal industry is given an opportunity to participate in the international division of labor on equal basis and to reach a qualitatively new level of production.
The share of chemicals made 9.6 percent. Mineral fertilizers still remain a key export item in the industry. Export volumes of mineral fertilizers increased by 14 percent in comparison with 1994 figures. Simultaneously, average contract prices also grew (by 24 percent).
Export patterns within the forestry and paper industry tended to be oriented towards raw materials in recent years affecting the structure of currency proceeds accordingly. A third of foreign exchange proceeds was derived from raw timber (logs) exports while semi-finished timber (lumber) accounted for 25 percent of proceeds and processing-intensive products brought only 32 percent.
A considerable increase in physical volumes of exports in the countries outside the former Soviet Union as compared with the previous year figures was reported for logs (37 percent) and cellulose (38 percent). At the same time, average export prices of logs grew by 2.8 percent and of cellulose -- by 96.6 percent.
One of the ways to increase export revenues is an expansion of sales markets for Russian-made weapons and military equipment. Export volumes of military production made $ 2.6 billion in 1995, that being by 1.7 times more than in 1994.
The share of machines and equipment in Russian exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union contracted to 3.8 percent as compared with 5.3 percent in 1994. Development of new competitive and technologically-intensive products relevant to modern level of requirements on external markets demands large investment and is time-consuming.
An increase in internal productional costs, first of all at the expense of energy and raw materials, more expensive loans, growing transport expenses, aging production assets in extractive and processing branches, deteriorating productional situation contributed to diminishing effectiveness of export transactions. At present only export of natural gas, oil, nickel, timber and lumber are profitable. Export of oil products, ferrous and nonferrous metals, chemicals begins to bring losses. However, due to worsening financial situation of Russian enterprises and growing payment arrears exporters prefer to have hard currencies even at declining or altogether negative profitability of exports.
The most dynamic and growing market of the Russian Federation are industrialized Western countries. The largest share of Russian exports goes to Germany (9.1 percent). The USA account for 6.9 percent, Switzerland--for 5.8 percent, Italy--for 5.6 percent, Japan--for 5.5 percent, Netherlands -- for 4.9 percent, Great Britain -- for 4.7 percent and Finland--for 4 percent of Russian exports.
The pattern of Russian imports has not been changed considerably. As before, machines and equipment were ranked first and accounted for a 38 percent share of the total imports which grew by 23 percent in comparison with 1994. It was caused by a necessity to provide key branches of the national economy with modern technologies and equipment.
A decline in agriculture followed by deteriorating provision of the populace with domestic-made foodstuffs has led to an expansion of food imports. Such measures as a rise of import duty rates, introduction of excises and of value added tax, abolition of preferences concerning import tariffs, which have been taken lately, contributed to an increase in internal prices of imported goods thus creating prerequisites to restrain imports. However, stabilization of ruble somewhat compensated for the negative impact of growing import duties and excises and helped to increase imports.
In 1995 imports grew considerably, especially of such products as sunflower oil (a 232 percent increase), poultry (by 70 percent more), alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages (a 67 percent increase), butter (an increase by 65 percent), frozen meat (by 43 percent more).
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