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ECONOMICS AND PRODUCTIVE FORCES: Extent of reliability and self-sufficiency of the socio-cultural formation’s economy; Ability to generate stable original economic standards and forms; Ability to generate technological innovations for socio-cultural purposes; Ability to conduct wide-scale economic actions of sabotage aimed against socio-cultural competitors.

The full typological description of the socio-cultural formations in accordance with the above named points counts for a 100 pages; it is partly published in our works (5, 6). The great importance of such typology for the potential conflict analysis is that it defines the standard situations when military, political, economic, and social conflicts may arise. There is a strict logic of their situational rising as well as evolution of the conflict complete cycle. 

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An important achievement of our theory is that it presents the possibility to create correct models of time-spatial processes in the course of socio-cultural formations’ evolution. It is now possible to describe the evolution of the socio-cultural formations’ morphology. These “space-time” models of the SCS-s evolution were published in our articles (5, 6). Unfortunately, it is impossible to reproduce all of them here once more: there are 56 models characterising periods of the SCS-s evolution and some extra 122 models characterising subperiods in the SCS-s evolution. Below is the list of periods in the various SCS-s evolution.

BARBARIAN-NOMADIC SCS

1. Initial period of the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS existence, surrounded by neighbours not internally ready to integrate with it socio-culturally (from ancient times until I century AD). 2. Establishing the buffer zone with Western SCS (I century - end of the IV century AD). 3. Socio-cultural integration of Barbarian-Nomadic and Western SCS. Rise of the renewed Western SCS (end of the IV century - second half of the VII century AD). 4. Creating the buffer zones between Barbarian-Nomadic SCS and all of its neighbouring SCS-s (from second half of the VII century until late XII century). 5. Socio-cultural integration of Barbarian-Nomadic SCS with all the neighbouring, accessible to it SCS-s. Socio-cultural assimilation of the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS territory and population into these SCS (late XII - 1380-s). 6. Rise of the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS residual homeland and population. Conflict of various neighbouring SCS-s for its socio-cultural assimilation, with the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS itself marionette participation in the process (late XIV century - middle of the XX century). 7. Establishing the Barbarian-Nomadic SCS residual homeland and population on the borders of Russian and Chinese SCS-s as their external buffer zone (from the second half of the XX century and for some future)

MUSLIM SCS

1. Initial sporadic colonisation of the homeland territory in the most ancient civilisations and unknown old centres of inhabitancy (XXX - VII centuries BC). 2. Initial spatial defining of the Muslim SCS territory and its early acquisition in the form of Empires. Conflict with Western SCS of its second stage for buffer spaces (750-s - 330-s BC). 3. Socio-cultural contest of Muslim SCS. Creating the internal buffer zones on borders with Western SCS. Assimilation of the other socio-cultural systems’ population within the Muslim territories (from 330-s BC until early VII century AD). 4. Islam as the product of the socio-cultural contest; unification of the Muslim territories based on Islam. Beginning of the Muslim controlled spaces growth, and establishing the buffer zones between Muslim SCS and all of its neighbouring SCS-s (Western, Barbarian-Nomadic, Hindu and Black African) (early VII century - 1258). 5. Socio-cultural integration with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS. Further growth of the Muslim controlled spaces into the territories of Black African and Hindu SCS-s. Creating the military-political vassals and buffer zones with all the neighbouring SCS-s (1258 - early XVIII century). 6. Conflict for buffer spaces with various SCS-s. Loss of the military-political vassals and the alien socio-cultural systems’ permanent presence in the Muslim homeland. Diffusion of the Muslim communities outside the Muslim homeland (early XVIII century - 1970-s). 7. Liberation of the Muslim homeland and its internal buffer zones from the alien socio-cultural systems’ permanent presence. Political-geographical transformation of the Muslim SCS space based on its own socio-cultural standards. Conflict with other SCS-s for the external buffer zones (from 1970-s and for some future)

CHINESE SCS

1. Initial period of the Chinese population existence and Chinese SCS creation (from legendary Hsia Dynasty 1800 - 1500 BC to Eastern Chou Dynasty 770 BC). 2. Socio-cultural contest for creating the most efficient socio-cultural standard for Chinese SCS (from 770 to 221 BC - Eastern Chou Dynasty). 3. Unification of the Chinese SCS territory based on the chosen socio-cultural standard. Beginning of the homeland growth and establishing the naturally dependent vassals (221 BC - 317 AD). 4. Creating the internal buffer zone on the North, new naturally dependent vassals on the West and new homeland on the South (317 - 1211 AD). 5. Socio-cultural integration with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS. Creating the internal buffer zones, naturally dependent vassals and homeland growth on the South. Unification of the socio-culturally transformed territories into the united state (from 1211 until 1840-s). 6. Defining the buffer zones’ territories through conflict with various SCS-s. Military, political and economic presence of alien socio-cultural systems in the Chinese homeland. Beginning of the Chinese population intensive diffusion around the World (from 1840-s until the Great Cultural Revolution). 7. Creating the integral internal buffer zone and liberation of the Chinese homeland from the alien socio-cultural systems’ presence. Establishing the Chinese enclave-communities within Western SCS and the mixed socio-cultural regions (as from the end of the Great Cultural Revolution and for some future)

WESTERN SCS

1. Initial period of the Western population existence and Western SCS creation. Initial sporadic colonisation of the homeland territory in the most ancient civilisations (from ancient times until 770 - 750-s BC). 2. Greek-Roman times. Western homeland growth. Rise of the first Empires and Greek-Roman communities outside the homeland. Establishing the buffer zone with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS (770 - 750-s BC - 380-s AD). 3. Socio-cultural integration with Barbarian-Nomadic SCS. Transformation and further expansion of the homeland. Creating internal buffer zones. Defining the new ideological grounds of Western SCS based on Roman Catholicism (from 380-s AD until the Crusades beginning). 4. Socio-cultural contest of Western SCS. Transformation of the Pyrenees Muslim enclave into internal buffer zone. Creating naturally dependent vassals in the East-European buffer zone. Expansion outside own homeland into the mixed socio-cultural regions (from the Crusades beginning until the discovery of America). 5. Global overseas colonial expansion of Western national states. Growth of the homeland in the mixed socio-cultural regions with Western predominance (1490-s - 1918). 6. Global war against other socio-cultural systems headed by Russian SCS. Losing the control over colonies. Reversion of Western population into own homeland and its redistribution between the mixed socio-cultural regions with Western predominance and traditional Western territories (1918 - 1990-s). 7. Transformation of the European homeland and stimulating further population redistribution between the territories of old homeland and mixed socio-cultural regions with Western predominance. Creating the American and South-Eastern internal and external buffer zones (from 1990-s and for some future)

RUSSIAN SCS

1. Initial period of the Slavonic world existence, with undeveloped socio-cultural differences (from ancient times until 882 AD). 2. Period of the socio-cultural differences defining in the Slavonic world. Early accumulation of the Russian SCS territory and population as well as establishing the internal and external buffer zones (from 882 until middle - end of the XI century). 3. Socio-cultural contest for creating the most efficient socio-cultural standard for Russian SCS. Socio-cultural integration with barbarian-nomadic SCS (from the end of the XI century until 1572). 4. Creating the united Russian State, with utmost homeland, based on Moscow socio-cultural standard (from 1572 until 1700). 5. Imperial program of the Russian SCS: creating naturally dependent vassals and further homeland growth; expansion into neighbouring SCS-s as resistance to Western SCS pressure onto these SCS-s (from 1700 until 1917). 6. Communist program of the Russian SCS: defining boundaries of own socio-cultural spaces (especially internal and external buffer zones); leading the global war against Western SCS expansion outside its homeland (1917 - 1991). 7. Nationalist program of the Russian SCS: re-structuring own socio-cultural spaces; maintaining balance of socio-cultural powers in the World (from the end of the XX century and for some future)

HINDU SCS

1. Initial period of the Indian population existence and rise of the ancient Hindu civilisations as a form of sporadic colonisation of the territory. Rise of the Hindu SCS religious, cultural and social foundations (2500-s - 327 BC). 2. First contacts with Muslim SCS. Beginning of the homeland growth and establishing the North-Western buffer zone (327 BC - 711 AD). 3. Muslim SCS attacks withstanded. Creating the buffer zone on the joints with Muslim SCS (711 - early XIII century). 4. Muslim SCS intervention and establishing the vassal military-political control over the Northern and Central regions of the Hindu homeland. Further evolution of the Hindu homeland (early XIII century - 1658). 5. Military-political control of the Great Britain and co-operation with it to withstand the Muslim SCS expansion. Adaptation of Western innovations and Hindu population diffusion into other socio-cultural formations as a vassals of British colonists. Creating the internal buffer zones; conflict with Muslim and Chinese SCS-s for the external buffer zones (1658 - 1945). 6. Transition to an indirect forms of co-operation with Western SCS in the struggle against Muslim and Chinese SCS-s. Extreme point of the conflict with Muslim SCS for control over buffer zones. Further developing the internal buffer zones; efforts to transform the external buffer zones into naturally dependent vassals (from 1945 and for some future). 7. Prognostic stage: Retention of the indirect forms of co-operation with Western SCS to withstand the Muslim and Chinese SCS-s expansion. Final stages of creating the internal and external buffer zones. Political-geographical transformation of the Hindu homeland based on its own socio-cultural standards (more distant future)

SOUTH-AMERICAN SCS

1. Initial existence of the South-American population and sporadic colonisation of the territory in form of the most ancient civilisations (from ancient times until the end of the XV century). 2. Socio-cultural integration with Western and Black African SCS-s. Spatial colonisation / assimilation of the territory and creating the renewed basis for South-American SCS (from 1490-s until the 1823 Monroe Doctrine). 3. Establishing the internal buffer zones and re-structuring own territory based on the national states’ principles. Permanent military-political and economic presence of Western SCS (represented by the USA) (1823 - 1918). 4. Operative involvement of the USA into South-American SCS rising. Introduction of economic, social and military innovations. Further creating the internal buffer zones. Co-operation of South-American and Russian SCS-s in the struggle against permanent presence of the USA (1918 - 1980-s). 5. Liberation of the South-American SCS homeland from military, economic and political presence of all the alien socio-cultural systems. Creating the buffer zone with Western SCS (in the mixed socio-cultural region with Western predominance in North America). Operative conversion of the submitted Western economic and social innovations (from 1980-s and for some future). 6. Prognostic stage: Socio-cultural contest in South-American SCS and its re-structuring in accordance with the own renewed socio-cultural standards (this period may last for a 100 years or more). 7. Prognostic stage: Further intensive development of the South-American SCS territory based on its own socio-cultural standards (quite distant future)

BLACK AFRICAN SCS

1. Initial period of the Black African population existence on the territory of its homeland, at the stage of clan-tribal organisation (from ancient times until IV century AD). 2. Beginning of the contacts with Muslim SCS, rise of the early States; creating the Northern and Eastern internal buffer zones (IV century - 1490-s). 3. Beginning of the contacts with Western SCS, creating the Western and Southern internal buffer zones. Overseas diffusion of the Black African population and establishing the enclave-communities within alien socio-cultural formations. Participation in the evolution of South-American SCS, on its 2nd stage (1490-s - 1880-s). 4. Spatial seizure of Black African SCS by Western SCS. Introduction of the superficial economic, social and military innovations. Co-operation of Black African and Russian SCS-s in the struggle against Western SCS control over the Black African homeland (1880-s - 1960). 5. Liberation of the Black African SCS homeland from military, economic and political presence of all the alien socio-cultural systems. Operative conversion of the submitted economic and social innovations (from 1960 and for some future). 6. Prognostic stage: Socio-cultural contest in Black African SCS and its re-structuring in accordance with the own renewed socio-cultural standards (this period may last for a 100 years or more). 7. Prognostic stage: Further intensive development of Black African SCS based on its own socio-cultural standards. Establishing connections between the Black African homeland and its overseas enclave-communities (quite distant future)

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We also present here the general table of periods and subperiods in the socio-cultural systems’ evolution. The “socio-cultural age” is extremely important for understanding potential political, economic, religious, ethnic and regional conflicts.

GENERAL TABLE OF PERIODS AND SUBPERIODS

IN THE SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS’ EVOLUTION

SOCIO-CULTURAL SYSTEMS	Periods of evolution							Number of  completed subperiods in the SCS’ evolution	Number of completed subperiods by the time when 7.1. begins
	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	7th
	Number of subperiods within a period
Barbarian-Nomadic SCS							unknown for the time being	17	17
Muslim SCS							unknown for the time being	18	18
Chinese SCS							unknown for the time being	18	18
Western SCS							unknown for the time being	18	18
Russian SCS							unknown for the time being	17	17
Hindu SCS						unknown for the time being	prognosis	15	Prognosis 17 - 18
South-American SCS					unknown for the time being	prognosis	prognosis		Prognosis 17 - 18
Black African SCS					unknown for the time being	prognosis	prognosis	10	Prognosis 17 - 18
Average number of subperiods within a period	1	2.75	2.75	2.5	4	3.2	unknown for the time being	Total 122	Prognosis 139 - 142

Автор Dmitry V. Nikolaenko

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