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            Cultural factors are most important in ethnic areas of the Baltic countries, as well as in Turkmenistan, Kirgizia, and Kazakhstan. In contrast, while the major conflict in Transdniestria does not have a purely ethnic character, the weight of the national identity factor for Moldova is minimal.

            An unfavorable economic situation was the major factor for Russian and Belorussian ethnic areas, most of which are located in peripheral, backward parts of their countries. The most evident is the case of the North-Caucasian republics, which have long been ranked last in the Russian Federation according to most social indicators such as infant mortality, the relative number of kindergartens and hospitals, and the relationship between the rise in prices and average incomes. The situation in the remote Siberian autonomous districts, the areas of Amur and small indigenous Northern peoples is not much better.

            One of the areas with the highest conflict potential is northeast Estonia, the region, where tensions are high (22 points). This area of a Russian-speaking population is the only ethnic area there, but due to the ethnic minority size and share in the population of the country, Estonia has the highest rank among former Soviet republics by these indicators. The geopolitical situation on the Russian-Estonian borderland and the poor state of its economy (by national measures) increase the risk of a conflict. In Latvia and Lithuania, the geopolitical situation of their ethnic areas, the spatial concentration of the minorities, and the sharp cultural contrast between ethnic and titular populations also raises the general index of the potential political tension. However, political mobilization of both Russian-speaking and other minorities in the Baltic countries remains relatively limited (Chinn and Kaiser, 1996).

            Generally speaking, the conflict potential still is more significant in the well-known "old hot spots" like Nagorno-Karabakh, Georgia, and Moldova. In Ukraine, the number and the share of ethnocultural areas are especially considerable, and their situation is one of important factors causing geopolitical risks. Thus, ethnic relations between Russians and Ukrainians remain peaceful (Chinn and Kaiser, 1996; Kolstohe, 1995; Tishkov, 1993).

            For the Russian Federation, the most acute ethnopolitical conflicts has touched its territory in Chechnia, and neighboring Ossetian and Ingush republics. These areas have the maximum general estimations of tension, at the level of 18-20 points. The war in Chechnia represented the sharpest conflict; however, its geopolitical and especially economic background was relatively moderate. This level is high also in the other areas of North Caucasus (12-16), which represents a compact and uninterrupted zone of the high risk of ethnic conflicts. In the areas of Karachaevi, Cherkessian, Balkar, and Dagestani peoples, the important values of the general index are combined with a high political mobilization.

            Nevertheless, the average level of political tension in Russian ethnic areas (making up about 1/2 of their total number in the former Soviet Union) is considerably lower than in the post-Soviet space as a whole (10.6 versus 13.2). However, this is not a consolation prize, if we take into account the many latent conflicts and the situation of the Russian-speaking population outside Russian borders.

SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE

            When history, geography, ethnicity and politics dominate the redrawing of an existing map, the actors and spectators are allowed to speculate about the outcome. Of course, our speculations differ due to our personal and professional skills, and to the degrees of freedom and responsibility accepted. There are also a variety of styles of the so-called scientific provision, more "real" or "optimal" (which goes much better with politics or planning) and more logically emphasized (though perhaps more fantastic or even absurd), in order to stress different versions of future, to reveal their impact, and to compare them. What a reader finds below is the latter type of a "geographic speculation".

            The key question asked is about the relationship between geopolitical and ethnic integrity, or, differently phrased, about the two concepts of disintegration and of re-integration. The two corresponding versions of the future are principle-based rather than time-based. Nonetheless, they may be symbolically taken as the two successive steps, with an essential restriction: there will be no dates, and therefore no general demographic dynamics (as a background), nor secondary effects of the first scenario for the second one (such as mass migration flows and related change in birth and death rates, etc.).

            The early 1990s picture of ethnic/ subnation areas, as analyzed and described above, is taken as the fixed starting point called Scenario 0. The stable parameters are combined and then recombined according to the proposed changes on the political map for the first and second scenarios. Scenario 1: General Ethnic Disintegration (Mass Secession of Ethnic Areas)

            Values of both summary scores of ethnic tensions and political mobilization of a minority in its compact area when exceed the European average, according to our Scenario 0 estimations, expect some development for the secessionist hypothesis. As for the mean value used (about 13 points for general totals), it can be illustrated by the Scottish area in the UK. It is one point more then the average and exhibits the lowest level of tension in the list of cases associated with the scenario.

            The list includes 48 of such "experimentally created new states", or about 30% of the total number of ethnic areas. Below, one can find a short description of their major representatives (populated by 1 million or more). The so-called countries, of course, with their very artificial names are presented (Table 3).

            The two dozen cases examined in the table illustrate simply different degrees of probability and the "effectiveness" of disintegration. The less populated areas are more numerous but similar in variety. Nagorno-Karabakh in Armenia, though ten times less populous, can compete however with Yugoslavian Kosovo as a leader in ethnic tension and mobilization.             Figure 6 shows the ethno-political map which corresponds to the scenario. Western Europe does not appear changed, but the Balkans and Caucasus exhibit an extraordinary mosaic! Furthermore, separatism and disintegration seems to be useless in these areas in both the geopolitical and the ethnic sense. The impossibility of dividing Bosnia and Dagestan (due to their striped ethnic settlement) is symbolical for the larger regions they represent. Attempts to reach political objectives with the use of violence - with deportation and ethnic cleansing - leads only to the escalation of violence and the extension of a conflict. In the Caucasus, a number of contemporary conflicts are caused or were deepened by Stalin deportations; Bosnia represents a quite fresh evidence that the use of violence exerts an extremely long-term and negative influence on inter-ethnic relations. Only the western case, that of Ulster, might be compared to some extent with Bosnia and Dagestan. The same general distribution between East and West is indicated by the incorporation of macro-regional totals (Table 3).

            The "effectiveness" of the scenario for Western Europe is seen from the fact that 14 additional "states" add only 3 more ethnic areas, but twice the absolute, proportional, and average figures of ethnic (areal) population. Ten more states in Southeastern Europe bring thirty new areas but very modest changes in their parameters, except the mean population size. This region is the best example of minorities multiplying in a form of partition. Finally, the scenario of disintegration looks least effective for the former Soviet Union, where 24 symbolically established states include an equal number of ethnic areas, the same average, but yielding a notable increase in their absolute population and percentage.

            We hope that nobody takes this game seriously and implements it in practice. However, could such an endeavor be much more reasonable (if not attractive) now for Western European ethnic areas. This comes, first, from the fact that many states are not involved into the risky game at all, due to low ethnic-areal tensions. They are four of the five Nordic countries, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland (a unique, quiet European multinational federation), Austria, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary and Slovenia. Some other states get off with the minimal losses; Corsica, Sardinia and Tyrol could claim their expected independence from France and Italy. There are only three states that are slated to suffer notably from secessions: Great Britain, Belgium and Spain. Among them, only Belgium eventually disappears from the scene.

            In Southeastern Europe, the situation is different. Only Greece, Macedonia and Turkey (beyond their mutual painful relations which are another matter) are potential non-losers here. At the same time, the preconditions of a complete collapse are quite real for Bosnia and for the remains of Yugoslavia. Within the former USSR, there is only Belarus (as far as the Baltic states are counted with West Europe) that has no chance of losing a minority's area because of a very important uniform mixture of its basic minorities. Ukraine offers a distinct case, as it risks the loss of three of its areas, including the greatest European one (the half-Russian, eastern portion, or the so called "Novorossia").

            Do the results mean that the East may stay calm while the West has to make some urgent efforts to prevent ethnic disintegration? Not at all! We speak only of the rational impact of similar events, but the very events are too often caused by emotional factors which have nothing to do with a calculation like this. The chain reaction of disintegration can go on spontaneously in the East and remain dormant in the West, especially under the EU roof.

            Another problem can be analyzed as a special topic. What are the chances of survival in an "autonomous navigation" for those who are brave enough to start?

Scenario 2: General ethnic re-integration

            German reunfication is perhaps not such an outstanding and unique experience as it is normally viewed - for contemporary European peripheries, at least. The wars in Bosnia and in Nagorno-Karabakh are influenced by similar aspirations. The 20-years story of Cyprus could take lace only in connection with somewhat more than simple support coming from Greece and Turkey. In fact, it was a sort of their latent reunification with the respective parts of the divided island. Finally, the goal of the IRA in Ulster, or of the Popular Front in the post-Soviet Moldova, is the same determination to join their neighboring "relatives". The crucial dilemma of real policy in cases like these focuses on tactics and strategy. It is convenient to decorate your final desire with the much more traditional slogans of struggle for independence, though for how long?

            For our second scenario, however, the question is different: are there more prerequisites for living alone or for reunification with somebody who is very close? How does one measure the strength of "family ties"? It is evident that historical, linguistic, confessional and geopolitical similarity has to be taken into account. Nevertheless, have strictly speaking, we have decided to depart from our quantitative approach, to approach the extremely hypothetical second step by using our expert knowledge and techniques of estimation.

            We suggest the above mentioned geographical cases as very probable for the scenario. At times, we were troubled by such problematic associations as "Lusitania" (i.e. Portugal plus "former" Spanish Galicia, based on their original Lusophonie, though it has been lost by many Galicians) or as "Great Cherkessia" and "Nakh Confederation" in Russian and partly in Georgian (Abkhazia in the first case) and Azerbaidjan Caucasus (united Lazistan as part of the second confederation). These doubts were based on

the fact there would be no dominating majority, nor one nation in some cases, but rather common outer enemies.

            Flanders unified with the Netherlands and Wallonia incorporated by France, with "Free Brussels" as the EU capital and a memorial of Belgium, or "Great Hungary" restoring its historical rule over Transylvania, Upper (Slovak) Hungary, Transcarpathia (after its separation from Ukraine) and Hungarian Vojvodina (after its partition), seem to represent the middle of the corresponding ranking list.

            In several cases, we restored recently disintegrated countries and areas: Russia plus Novorossia, Crimea, Northern "Russian-Nag" Dagestan and "Narva republic" in Russian-speaking Estonia; Ukraine plus Moldovian

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