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Studies of language and literature (the analysis of cycles of development of the notions and stylistic paradigms).

In the frameworks of particular research conceptions, we plan to develop methodological foundations, to define a system of indices and information, and, on this base, to perform each of the objective-disciplinary investigations. It is, perhaps, the most complicated part of the study in such directions, for example, as demography because the statistical data on censuses of population have a limited historical depth (mainly, the XIX and XX centuries) and the total limits of the study are 2,000 years. In other words, difficulties in the provision of objective investigations by statistical information require that participants of the project reveal much creative and inventive activity.

Note that both the verification and measurement of societal (system-wide) indices involve a definite complexity. For example, it is known that the cost of a necessary empiric material according to the price list of the «Gellap-International» company equals about 400,000 USD. Therefore, by seeking alternative variants, the research group plans a special complex of experimental works on approbation of new Internet-technologies, in particular, organization of a separate web-site in the Internet. Such a site allows one to solve, on the whole, three important problems: first, it will give the alternative way «to gather» empiric data; second, it will ensure the open communication between the involved participants of the project; third, we obtain the perspective to edit the electronic specialized journal guaranteeing the operative publication and discussion of the most substantial results received during the realization of this project.

Openness of the project supposes both a free access to solution of its problems and a support of initiative researches on places. The working group of the project foresees an organizational assistance to similar investigations. On the web-site of the project, we intend to organize a powerful informational support to research initiatives in the field of social globalistics. More exactly, we assume to realize the informational-librarian support (the disposition of on-line librarian resources, data on authors, institutions, and countries carrying on relevant investigations, publication of main results, conduct of conferences, discussions, etc.).

The authors of the basic conception and working group of the project express their sincere gratitude all who promoted preparation and establishment of the project in various ways.

We thank the Expert Council of the Ukrainian Social Innovation Society, Secretariat of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Atlantic Council of Ukraine, Scientific Council of the University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (Kharkiv), Institutes of Sociology and History of Ukraine of the NAS of Ukraine, Parliamentarian Publishing House, whose constructive participation allows us to publish this open conception.

We are thankful to the companies «Socis-Gellap» and «GfK–USM» for the significant help in gathering the empiric data during 8 years.

We thank the company «Clear Water» and Ukrainian foundation for law defence Institutions for financial support this publication.

We should like to express our hope that the publication of our open conception will give a positive pulse to a wide scientific discussion. Moreover, we expect to meet a constructive criticism which «comprehends» difficulties which were encountered by the authors’ team and have led to the insufficiently rigorous form of presentation of the essence of the conception.

We ask to send propositions and remarks to the executive secretary of the project, Martynov Andrei Yur’evich [off. tel. (380 44) 229-8704], and to the supervisor of the project, Afonin Eduard Andreevich [off. tel. (380 44) 226-2145; e-mail: afonin@rada.gov.ua].

CHAPTER 1

Social development at the boundary
of millennia

Under the conditions of the planetary crisis, that has emerged on the eve of the third millennium, the humanity is faced with the problem of globalization of transformational processes. Beginning as the «Great Depression» of 1929-1934 in North-American and West-European countries, these processes received a new powerful impulse at the end of the XX century, by spreading their influence on the countries of the Central and Eastern Europe and a significant part of Asia.

The new tendencies of social development and the problems of growth connected with them, actualized the research activity of representatives of social sciences. For example, by the late 60s of the XX century, A. Peccei, a famous public figure in Italy, organized the Rome Club that initiated systematic researches of global problems. The first report of this club, called «The limits of development», has become a futurological sensation. Presented by D. Medows in 1972, at the peak of «Energetic crisis», this report pessimistically stated that social forms within which the economic growth is realized, do not lead to the overall welfare but sharpen social antagonisms and conflicts.

Demographic problems, unemployment, incomplete exploitation of social and economic potentialities of the society, deficit and irrational management of resources, inefficiency of various measures, inflation, lack of security and arms race, pollution of the environment, and the destruction of biosphere – all these tendencies of a new stage of development were considered in the reports of the Rome Club[1]. No less pessimistic was Lindon Laroush’s[2] forecast of the near future, related to the new wave of transformational processes in the former USSR.

The globalization of threats may be the price paid by the humanity for its achievements. In the latter half of the XX century, the man landed on the Moon, which can be compared to the discovery of America by Columbus. The technical-scientific revolution radically alters everyday life. The achievements of genetics put the man in one line with the Creator, though the man is hardly ready to that fact morally. The Internet is transforming our ideas of time and space.

In the frameworks of new tendencies of social development, we observe the steady establishment of the liberal world economy system based on the principles of monetarism. At the same time against this self-intensifying background, the phenomenon of the so-called “ trophy economy” is becoming remarkable, when the mechanism of overconsumption, not balanced with the adequate quantity of constructive production, is gaining strength under the conditions of moral corruption[3]. The controversies of the industrial development remain actual. A particular anxiety is brought up, in particular, by inevitable climatic changes caused by the extensive economic management and irreversible utilization of natural resources. The demographic factor is still fraught with the potential threat to social development: as of December 12, 1999, the world population has reached 6 billion people, having risen by 1 billion for as little as 12 years[4].

Since the Gulf War of 1990-1991, the conflicts for redistribution of resources (natural, energetic, economic, cultural, and informational) are again becoming the reality. In the process of political, economic, and social changes, which are one of the manifestations of the essence of historical development, the new world policy is becoming more expansive. This fact is revealed by the recent events in Kosovo (Yugoslavia) that took place in 1999. The countries of the advance-guard of social development have reached the postindustrial stage of development by the end of the XX century, when human intellect and various forms of information are becoming the leading factors of the reproduction of economy.

The new postindustrial epoch has given birth to its own ideology – post-modernism. This term was introduced at the beginning of the 1980s by the French philosopher J.-F. Lyotard for the formalization of the phenomenon of skepticism relative to the rationalist tendencies of Enlightenment. The «generic features» of post-modernism are: agnosticism, pragmatism, eclecticism, and anarchodemocratism[5].

post-modernism is the phenomenon of wide character, including all spheres of intellectual activity. It is based on egalitarian tendencies, contraposed to any hierarchic constructions[6].

The emergence of post-modernism on the horizon of social development stimulated the need in development of new paradigms, since post-modernism denies the very possibility of the social theory. Particularly, it concerns the problem of forecasting the social development.

The history is permanently demolishing prognostic scenarios, however it has its own logic. What was considered sane, was not historical, what was considered historical, was not sane[7]. This can be reproduced by the social theory, that, of course, does not give exhaustive knowledge of objective reality but allows us to distance ourselves from the absolute relativism.

The end of the millennium, the formal beginning of the new historical epoch, stimulates the imperative need of a substantially new paradigm of the social theory. The history, being the existence in action, always goes beyond the narrow frame of temporal conceptual constructions in reality and, at the same time, often denies socio-philosophical prognoses. That is why, the revision of existing concepts and prognoses of social development offered before becomes actual. As known, futurological constructions are formed, as a rule, at a definite moment. With a change of the situation, rendering a substantial influence on the foreseen tendencies, the gap between the foreseen and the real is widening. That is why, the noncomprehension of a new social-political topology of the world becomes a source of faults and mistakes, a corollary of the absence of a future «far-horizon» project[8].

In this context, significant is the discussion on the role of the social science in the contemporary world between former Presidents of the International Association of Sociologists I. Wallerstein and M. Archer. Whereas Wallerstein poses a new global problem of highlighting the fact of the end of one epoch and the beginning of another one as well as various forms of the transition to the latter, M. Archer accentuates the fact that the social science cannot play the role of radical transformer[9].

At the same time, the discussion of the correlation of Belief and Knowledge is becoming actual for the western science. «There is no conflict between the religion and science in the East, since science is not based on the predilection to facts, and religion – only on the belief; there exist the religious cognition and cognitive religion» – states Carl-Gustav Jung[10].

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